You may have heard of Starlink satellite network in operation/expansion built by Elon Musk’s (who else?) SpaceX. It is a system that is expected to provide space-based internet coverage to the world at competitive prices. Currently, it is a constellation of 3,500 Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, but it is expected to reach 12,000 by 2027, and potentially 42,000! (LEO is basically the 2,000 km space above the Earth).This all sounds great, except .....
China is concerned that Starlink has military implications as well (ref Ukraine’s use of Starlink in military) and in any case such a system is a matter of national security. Consequently, it is also planning to deploy such a system with thousands of satellites. So now we have at least two giants (I mean the US-via SpaceX and China) going for a massive increase in LEO satellites. And what stops other countries from increasing this number exponentially? Thus, we can have a saturation of the space above us, which has many consequences, some known and many not known yet.
Why LEO, you may ask. Well, an LEO satellite requires less energy to place it into orbit, and needs less energy to operate for communication, thus it has significant cost benefits. One of its major disadvantages, however, is its limited angle of communication, covering only a small portion of the Earth, thus requiring many satellites, interlinked, to cover our planet. Add the need to build redundancy (backup in case of failure), you can see how the number of satellites above our heads mushrooms up.
Wait a minute, I recall a similar situation in 18th/19th century. Oil became ‘the’ strategic resource, because the English and the Americans realized that it packs a lot of energy in a small volume, far more than even coal. Thus the rush to black gold. And today, we are seeing all its harms, and trying to get rid of its use, without much luck (yet).
So, will the LEO space become the next frontier, where we first find it an amazing strategic advantage, to the point that the powerful invade countries and change regimes, until the world realizes what harms its usage is causing, and then the sh*t hits the fan.
I would have thought, us intelligent humans, learn our lessons, but I guess Einstein was right: «Only 2 things are infinite: the universe, and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the former.»
Paris, February 27, 2023
Zeejay