This post was mostly written this past June 2024, but somehow, I could not get myself to publish it until now. But things have evolved quite a bit since, and not in the right direction. So I have slightly modified it. Beware, this is a long one.
I cannot clearly explain how I feel after the results of European Union’s parliamentary elections this past June, especially those in France. It is painful to see the results, but it is even more painful to know that the outcome was practically expected by many people, including the government and certainly President Emmanuel Macron. Everyone played the game of ‘I stick my head in the sand and pretend I am not seeing it.’ Alas, just because one does not want to see it, it does not mean it will not happen.
There is no doubt in many (many) people’s mind that Mr. Macron is mostly responsible for such an outcome, with his arrogance (real or projected), disdain for his people (real or projected), and rushing to turn himself into a living legend, turn-around artist, and eternally worshiped president of the startup nation of France. « Why? », you ask? Let me give you a few hints.
He was propelled onto the political scene, when the previous socialist president, François Hollande, named him finance minister in 2014. He thus obtained a ‘leftist’ label, and who would not love a socialist financier (he was a banker before entering politics).
Suddenly, in 2016 he resigns, and shortly after, he emerges as a candidate for the 2017 presidential elections on a platform of a massive change from the constant left-right cleavage to a center run by professionals working for all French. Many people, including yours truly, voted for him. And his newly formed party also won the legislative elections with an absolute majority about six weeks after he won the presidential elections.
From the very beginning, he took completely over the government activities, and as time moved, he just stopped covering up and pretty much made everyone understand that he is a strong supporter of the ‘right wing’ political policies. On top of that, he marginalized the prime minister. But he certainly started a divorce procedure between himself and the French people. Sometimes arrogant, sometimes disdainful, his behavior became ‘regal.’ Even though many presidents have been unpopular in their mandates, no other president under the fifth republic (dating back to 1958) managed to be divorced from his people so quickly in his first mandate.
COVID pandemic did not help the situation either, but even in that instance he displayed a sort of detachment from the entire establishment, not to mention that France’s performance in fighting COVID was less than stellar, on any metrics.
When he was re-elected as president in 2022, it was once again against the extreme-right candidate, Marine Le Pen. The margin of victory, however, was reduced to 58.5%-41.5%. If you think this is comfortable, just think that in 2002, Le Pen, the father, lost 17%-83% (to Jacques Chirac), and Marine Le Pen in 2017 lost by 34%-66% (to Emmanuel Macron).
Macron’s party lost its absolute majority, with the left, center-right and extreme-right picking up seats. The message was clear: people did not appreciate the ‘regal’ president. If I recall correctly, he even signaled that he got the message and he would modify his policies for this second term to care about the concerns of the common person.
The new government, however, continued as if nothing had happened, except that this time, without having an absolute majority, it could not pass the legislation, so it resorted to what amounts to a nuclear weapon in the French legislative process: clause 49-3. I am not going into details, but the clause allows a government to cut short a parliamentary debate and put its legitimacy on the line: if the government is rejected, the legislation is rejected AND the government falls. If the government is not rejected, it stays, and the legislation becomes law.
The government under his second mandate used the clause 20 times in 18 months, an absolute record! Discussions such as those about retirement, pensions, and many other critical topics were cut short. In every case, the government stayed on because a center right party, Les Républicains (LR), supported the government, even though they did not support the proposal. But even more importantly, the extreme-right party of Marine Le Pen did not support any of the government rejection votes. So paradoxically, the government, obtained the support of the extreme-right party that very much supports the kind of policies Macron announced the government will try to steer away from!
So, after arrogance and disdain, people saw hoax, cheap words, and legislation without much debate. And we wonder why such a vote for extreme right?! Especially after we see the government’s performance over the same years: lackluster performance on the fight against COVID, expanding budget deficits, and societal difficulties. So, the brilliant, young, and energetic man who was supposed to stop the left-right cleavage, block extreme-right’s progression, give the state back to its citizens and put the country’s economics on the right path, basically failed at them all.
Paris, February 13, 2025
Zeejay