Reading the Western media these days, it feels as if China is doing all and only the bad things in the world: authoritarian, genocide causing, aggressive behavior toward its neighbors and the world, and its Belts & Road Initiative (BRI) being a debt trap for ‘underdeveloped’ countries. Much of that may be true to some extent, but how is it that no one mentions anything about the achievements they have made? But I will not delve in that issue this time, for I should investigate it in more details before making any statements about it.
What I like to bring up, though, is what I see as a risk of leadership deterioration in China. The kind of leadership (both in terms of process and choice) that made it achieve so much in less than half a century.
The other day I was thinking that since Mao’s death in 1976, there has been a “Paramount Leader” which started in 1976 with a certain Hua Guofeng (1976-1978), all the way to current Xi Jinping. Den Xiaoping served the longest as Paramount Leader for a total of 14 years, but most of the other ones have done 10 years, except for the two mentioned above who did 2 and 14 years, respectively. We, in the West, may not approve them, but these ascensions have formed the basis of the Chinese Leadership, for they are perceived (and probably are within their system) to have been meritocracy, meaning that the chosen ones had reached those positions because they were deemed most competent.
Yes there is the regular partisanship and politicking, but the Paramount Leader is the result of an election and meritocracy process within that system. Furthermore, unlike the Soviet system, those leaders did not remain so until they died, they did 10 years or so and then moved on. Sort of what US Presidents do. But this may be changing with Xi Jinping.
Xi Jinping, has just reached his traditional 10 year mark, but he does not seem to want to relinquish power. In fact, he is apparently seeking to become a leader for life. And if that happens, China’s leadership process may become corrupt and sclerosed. And China’s current state is not strong nor established enough to weather such a debilitating event. If I were an American policymaker, I would love to see Xi Jinping continue his push to win further authoritarian rule on China’s future.
Paris, February 7, 2022
Zeejay